Bearish sentiment is growing among large speculators in bitcoin

According to COT (Commitments of Traders) reports provided by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) – for the week ending last Tuesday:

  • Large speculators (NON-COMMERCIAL) increased the net position for selling contracts for bitcoin by 0.75 thousand contracts to 3.72 thousand. Large speculative players increased their net position for selling after a weekly reduction, and are increasing it for 4 weeks out of the last 6. The net position exceeded the August highs and became the highest in the entire history of 3-year trading.
  • Small speculators (NONREPORTABLE POSITIONS) have increased their net position for buying contracts for bitcoin by 0.70 thousand contracts to 3.24 thousand. Small speculators are increasing their net position for buying also for 4 weeks out of the last 6.
  • Hedgers (COMMERCIAL) increased the net position to buy Bitcoin contracts by 43 contracts to 475 contracts. Hedgers-operators have been increasing their net buy position for the third week in a row, and for 5 weeks out of the last 6.

Open interest grew by 1.74 thousand contracts to 14.37 thousand.

The bearish index of large speculators (the ratio of the number of contracts to sell to the number of contracts to buy) increased over the week by 0.07 to 1.52.

Bottom Line: Bitcoin COT data reflects a noticeable rise in bearish sentiment among large speculators. After a week’s break, large speculators resumed building up their net position to reduce Bitcoin. Large funds, after three weeks of contraction, noticeably increased their positions, especially sales, which led to an increase in the net position for a decrease in BTC by 25% over the week. At the same time, the net position renewed the historical highs of August. The continuation of this trend may contribute to the decline in cryptocurrency.

Small speculators have mainly increased their purchases in the last week. Bullish sentiment has resumed among small speculators, but this group of traders usually does not have a significant impact on the market.

Hedgers, usually trading against the main trend, continue to build up a net position aimed at lowering Bitcoin, suggesting a drop in BTC after the latest updates to all-time highs.

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