The Russian stock market looked very weak yesterday, despite the fact that with the opening of European markets, almost all assets, with the exception of oil, went uphill.
It seems that Vladimir Putin also supported the market by not making loud statements about external threats, which we somewhat feared on the eve of the announcement of his message to the Federal Assembly. The decision to increase social support for certain segments of the population, as well as an increase in funding for regions and infrastructure projects, is also positive for the shares.
But the words about the use of dividends became an alarming moment. It is possible that the taxation of dividends will be increased, which will be negative for the market.
Still, the main obstacle to the growth of the market is a very alarming foreign policy situation, the improvement of which has not yet been seen. So it turns out that it is scary to buy, but it is a pity to sell, especially in the conditions of approaching dividend cutoffs. Most likely, the sideways trend will continue in the coming days.
This morning cannot be called joyful. American futures, after yesterday’s percentage growth, are slightly decreasing, oil went to the region of $ 65 per barrel, threatening to break this mark and fall in price by another $ 1.5-2, industrial and precious metals are in the red. So at the opening of trading we will see small sales of blue chips.
However, the situation has been changing very rapidly in recent days.
Among the promising securities, we can note the shares of gold miners. Gold after drawing a “double bottom” shows a clear intention to go up. The resumption of the dollar’s decline can help him in this. Yesterday, the euro-dollar pair tested the 1.20 level from top to bottom, but finished the day above it. After the technical overbought for the pair is removed, its growth may resume.
We look with surprise at ferrous metallurgists. The securities are heavily overbought both in the medium and short term, but their growth continues. While shares of companies in the sector should be kept in portfolios, new purchases should be made only on drawdowns.
Unexpectedly, after Putin’s speech, the ruble strengthened, although the expectations of the receipt of new money in the economy for the Russian currency is a negative factor. But traders have played up the lack of harsh rhetoric against our external “ill-wishers.” In addition, it is now the season for exporters to sell foreign currency to accumulate rubles for tax payments.
The very likely increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia also benefits the ruble. However, there is no need to harbor unnecessary illusions, the situation on the foreign exchange market has calmed down and we expect the rate to rise by only 0.25 percentage points.
So in the near future the ruble may grow even more and, together with the dollar, even test the support 76. However, there are still no fundamental factors for a strong strengthening of the ruble.
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