Alfa-Forex: EUR / USD – the dollar regains positions in the new year


12 January 2021

The main currency pair EUR / USD opened the annual session of 2021 with a new peak of the bullish trend at 1.2350, after which the market moved to a correctional decline. Macroeconomic statistics from the United States for December turned out to be moderately optimistic: the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector PMI Manufacturing from ISM (Supply Management Institute) rose to highs since 2018 – 60.7 points; employment outside agriculture showed a decrease in jobs by 140 thousand, but the overall unemployment rate, contrary to the forecast of 6.8%, remained at the level of 6.7%. In addition, domestic political events in the United States increased the demand for the dollar. Outgoing President Trump faces impeachment following an attempt to seize him by supporters of the Capitol, which could provoke new unrest in the country before the inauguration of the newly elected head of the White House, Biden (scheduled for January 20). Against this background, investors tend to lose their appetite for risky assets and buy the American currency.

The EUR / USD pair has established an intermediate top of 1.2350 within the uptrend and is forming a corrective rebound in the direction of 1.2000-1.2100.

RUBLE – investors expect sanctions rhetoric to intensify

The Russian currency is trading in “New Year’s consolidation” against the dollar and the euro, ignoring the positive external background from the growth of oil prices above $ 55 per barrel of Brent. Investors are worried about recent events in the United States, where the Democratic Party won a majority in Congress. The event significantly increases the likelihood of tougher sanctions against Russia imposed by the Trump administration (the decision on them was postponed until the election results). Among the potential new measures is the disconnection of Russia from the SWIFT banking system, as well as a ban on foreign capital investment in public debt instruments. On Tuesday, January 12, the Bank of Russia will hold a meeting on monetary policy, at which it will obviously keep the discount rate at 4.25% and, possibly, hint about postponing the next rate cut to a later date (due to aggravated sanctions risks) …

The USD / RUB pair maintains a trading range of 72.70-76.60 rubles.

EUR / RUB pair has stabilized above the level of 90 rubles; the upper limit of weekly trading is the area of ​​92-94 rubles per euro.

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This information is not investment advice.

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