Alfa-Forex: EUR / USD – in the focus of investors the US labor market


06 May 2021

The single currency paired with the dollar failed to develop a bullish rally above 1.2200. This became clear after the sharp fixation of long positions in the auctions last Friday: investors reacted to the pronounced GDP indicators of the European Union and the United States for the first quarter. They speak about the continuation of the recession in the Eurozone (minus 0.6%) and strong economic growth overseas (plus 6.4%). At the meeting on the key rate, Fed Chairman Powell noted a noticeable improvement in the business environment. Stimulating measures helped: the regulator buys out the state on a monthly basis. bonds $ 80 billion a month.

Jerome Powell also separately mentioned the April / May employment data. If the Fed’s assumptions turn out to be correct and the situation on the labor market improves, the regulator is likely to revise its monetary policy. This will be the tipping point for the dollar trend.

This Friday, at 15.30 Moscow time, the attention of market participants will be focused on the report on employment outside of agriculture. According to the consensus forecast of experts, 978 thousand new jobs may appear in April, and unemployment will drop to 5.8% (for example: in March, unemployment in Europe was 8.1%). Against this background, the American currency has a real chance to return to the area below the psychological resistance at 1.2000.

The EUR / USD pair slowed down in the area of ​​1.2150-1.2200 and aimed to break through the resistance of 1.2000. In this case, the reference point for the movement will be the level 1.1800.

RUBLE – demand for national currency is recovering

Reducing geopolitical tensions returns the fundamental support to the national currency from rising oil prices: a barrel of Brent exceeded $ 70). After the Bank of Russia tightened monetary policy, investors began to build up positions in the Russian currency. Added to these positive factors was the slow recovery of the RF government bond market.

At the same time, statements by Western politicians about new sanctions create some nervousness in the market. It is highly likely that the ruble market will manage to avoid excessive volatility before the meeting between the presidents of the United States and Russia (which will take place in mid-June).

Having pushed off the resistance of 77 rubles, the USDRUB pair consolidated below 75.50. There is every reason to believe that the ruble will have enough strength to continue strengthening and settling in the area of ​​72.70-74 rubles per dollar.

The EUR / RUB pair is trading in the middle of the seven-month corridor with the nearest borders 88.60-92 rubles per euro.

This information is not investment advice.

Watch the video analysis of Alfa-Forex: rather short, moderately interesting and invariably useful.

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