Alfa-Forex: EUR / USD – euro accelerates fall


30 March 2021

The US dollar continues to be in demand among currency traders. The dollar index (reflecting the average value of the USD against other currencies) reached a high in November 2020, taking the 93 point mark. US statistics inspire optimism in market participants: GDP in the IV quarter showed growth above expectations (4.3% versus 4.1%), the consumer confidence indicator from the University of Michigan in March rose from 83 points to 84.9 points. The labor market is showing signs of recovery: in the last week alone, the number of applications for unemployment benefits increased by almost 100 thousand from (781 to 684). All of this bodes well for a strong non-farm employment report.

Nonfarm Payrolls are highly likely to increase volatility at 15:30 Moscow time, despite Good Friday. According to experts, the increase in jobs in March will amount to 630 thousand, and the overall unemployment rate may fall from 6.2% to 6%. Against this background, the US currency rate may continue to strengthen after the holiday weekend.

The EUR / USD pair accelerated its decline from the highs of the 1.2350 level as part of the bearish trend. Quotes have consolidated below the resistance of 1.1900-1.2000, which gives the market the potential to fall to the level of 1.1600.

RUBLE – the market is stabilizing after the “external shock”

The Russian currency experienced the most volatile weekly session in the past four months. In anticipation of new sanctions after Biden’s harsh rhetoric, the government loan market plummeted. The RGBI index fell to a March 2020 low (144 points), causing an avalanche-like decline in the ruble against the dollar and the euro. The USD / RUB pair came close to 77, EUR / RUB rose to 91.15, after which the situation stabilized due to high oil prices (BRENT barrel is holding above $ 65) and uncertainty about the day when the new restrictions will take effect. Probably, a temporary easing of political risks may help the ruble to regain some of its lost positions this week.

The USD / RUB pair suspended growth at the resistance level of 76.50 rubles, forming a rebound to the support of 75 rubles per dollar.

The EUR / RUB pair is forming a rebound from the resistance of 91 rubles to the support of 86.50 rubles – 88 rubles per euro.

This information is not investment advice.

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