Yesterday, the Moscow Exchange Index managed to rise by half a percent due to a slight improvement in the external background during the day, primarily the rise in oil. Sberbank scored again, adding 3%. If Sberbank shares are viewed as an indicator of the attitude of non-residents to ruble assets, then the picture becomes positive: at least they do not intend to take profit on our shares yet.
The nearest resistance at Sberbank is in the area of 275 rubles, but it will be difficult to break through it today and gain a foothold higher. Business activity falls on the eve of Catholic Christmas, today there is a shortened trading session on the western grounds, and tomorrow they will be closed altogether.
So in the evening our market will be left without external guidelines. There are no own ideas for a strong movement. Most likely, in such a situation, after lunch, blue chips will fall sideways, but in the second tier one can still expect strong movements in some securities. Unfortunately, it is impossible to predict what and when will “shoot”, but we recommend that you carefully look at the energy.
We will open with slight growth, which is favored by the external background: American futures are growing by about 0.2%, oil costs about $ 51.5 per barrel, industrial and precious metals are positive.
Oil yesterday was helped by statistics from the US Department of Energy, which recorded a decrease in reserves by 0.6 million barrels. Despite the fact that the market was expecting a reduction of 3.2 million, the data was perceived positively, as it turned out to be much better than the forecast of the American Petroleum Institute, which recorded an increase of 2.7 million barrels the day before.
Oil also reacted to the decline in the dollar, which showed that global financial risks are slowly decreasing. However, the likelihood of oil going under the $ 50 mark still remains.
Growth of Gazprom was interrupted yesterday. There were reports in the media that the United States was frantically preparing new sanctions against Nord Stream 2. We believe that this news is only of a local negative character for the papers of the gas monopoly: it is difficult to imagine how the completion of the project can be delayed any longer.
The ruble paired with the dollar yesterday strengthened to the level of 75. Today, it is possible that the rate will fall below this level, which is more an important psychological mark than a technical obstacle.
However, the desire to buy foreign currency in the last days of the year will grow, including due to hedging of ruble positions by large investors. However, on the foreign exchange market there is such a factor of uncertainty as the balance of the Bank of Russia funds from the purchase of shares in Sberbank and Aeroflot in the National Welfare Fund. The Central Bank planned to complete the sale of this currency by the end of this year, and if the balances are large, then their entry into the market could greatly strengthen the ruble. But it is possible that the regulator will carry over the balances to the next year.
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