A bearish picture has developed on the Russian market


The Russian stock market finished Friday with a 0.6% loss, looking worse than the rest of the markets. As before, the main reason for the decline is political and sanctions risks.

The drawdown on Friday was partly due to the desire to cut longs ahead of the weekend, during which the situation in Ukraine could deteriorate. But nothing terrible happened. Calls of European parliamentarians to disconnect Russia from SWIFT for pulling troops to the border with Ukraine and “provoking” Ukraine should not be taken seriously yet, but the bell is unpleasant.

However, there is no reason to buy either. American futures before our opening are declining by a third of a percent, which is quite logical: on Friday, the S&P 500 hit the upper border of the rising channel, and there is no reason to break it. Most likely, the American market will start a slight correction, or at least go sideways, which will be negative for ruble assets.

On the Russian market, the technical picture is also bearish: the Mosbirzhi Index finished last week under 3500 points, where the lower border of the narrowing ascending channel passes.

Today, all industrial and precious metals are also in the red, which will put pressure on the shares of commodity companies, which will be partially offset by the falling ruble. In the morning session, the ruble will test the 78 mark.

Its breakdown will open the way to the next target 80 rubles. for the dollar. And here we expect the Bank of Russia to enter trading with foreign exchange interventions, since the breakdown of 80 rubles. per dollar can provoke a powerful wave of devaluation and finally bury the already illusory hopes of keeping inflation within reasonable limits.

While buying something is scary, even speculative. Although I really want to take the heavily sagging and fundamentally underestimated Rosneft, the unfairly cheap Sberbank, which did not even win back the excellent reporting released last week, and Norilsk Nickel in anticipation of the impending share buyback program.

It seems that it is worth thinking about the implementation of these ideas when the Moscow Exchange Index approaches 3400 points.

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