The decision of the Bank of Russia to raise the key rate came as a surprise to many analysts. Speculators in the US have been betting on the fall of the ruble since the end of January. But over the past week, the rate of the Russian currency in the foreign exchange market has strengthened against the dollar by 1.45%, and for the first time in 2 months traders are betting on the strengthening of the ruble.
Is it too risky to buy the ruble against the dollar, given the significant risk of new sanctions? Alexander Kuptsikevich, an analyst at FxPro, answered a question from Fortrader magazine.
– These speculators’ actions do not include the latest news, such as Biden’s attack on Putin and the “weak” response from the latter. More importantly, it does not include the events in Turkey and the minor note on oil dynamics last week.
Also, we must not forget that the ruble is often governed not so much by technical factors as by the statements of officials. This is the flip side of the currency of an emerging economy. The last most alarming signal for financial markets is the comments of Lavrov and Volodin about the need to reduce the dollar’s influence in the economy. Nabiullina also spoke about this indirectly on Friday. America reacts very nervously to statements that undermine the hegemony of the dollar in the global financial system, so you should be prepared that the desire to “punish” Russia will only intensify in the coming days and weeks.
In the short term, the situation is developing against the Russian currency, making the ruble vulnerable to an impulsive move to the upper border of the trading range at 76.00 per dollar from its lower border below 72.50.
It seems that only at the upper end of the range is it worth seriously considering the resistance of currency sellers against the ruble. If the ruble does not meet buyers above 76, it can very quickly return to the 80 test.